Tens of thousands of people in Sweden who thought they were settled may soon discover they are not.

A Swedish government inquiry has proposed scrapping permanent residence permits for refugees and people living in Sweden under the EU's long-term residency directive. This long-standing status was meant to be exactly that: stable and permanent. Instead, these permits would be converted to temporary ones, renewed every three or two years, until the holders qualify for a Swedish passport.

The inquiry, presented in September, concluded that it is legally possible to revoke previously issued permits for non-EU citizens already living in Sweden, under a law that the parliament will need to accept specifically for that purpose.

In practice, it means that up to 180,000 people who have built lives, families and careers in the country could be pushed back into uncertainty. Among them are Afghan and Somali refugees, who are often unable to qualify for citizenship as Sweden doesn't recognise their documents, and are forced to live on permanent residency.

This accomplishment comes from the far-right Sweden Democrats party, who gained influence after the 2022 election. Since then, they've been a driving force behind many proposals to rewrite migration laws, develop a national identity policy and even revoke Swedish citizenship to fight gang criminality.

With this far-right initiative, Sweden wants to outdo the so-called Danish model – a set of much stricter rules for asylum seekers that were introduced after 2015, which cut refugee migration to Denmark to record low numbers.

However, while the far-right backed the inquiry, it's not just their project. Sweden's three governing parties (the Moderates, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals) that have an agreement with Sweden Democrats also support the inquiry, according to Anders Widfeldt, a lecturer in Nordic politics at the University of Aberdeen.

Even if a draft is postponed and opposition wins the next election in 2026, the time for generous migration policies has passed. No matter who wins, the next government will act “quite restrictively” toward the accepted refugees, he explains.

“There is no return,” Widfeldt tells The European Correspondent. “The debate (in Sweden) today is a question of who should be allowed to stay… and how to deport the people who have already been accepted, and how you should enforce that.”

Although the government insists the changes solely target refugees, about 1% of those who stand to lose their permanent status held through the EU’s long-term residence route. It grants permanent residency to non-EU citizens who have legally resided in the EU for 5 continuous years.

The permits could start being revoked as early as 2027. More than 65,000 people have signed a petition to stop the changes, arguing that they create “uncertainty” and obstacles to integration for those who already call Sweden home.

Swedish migration lawyers said the proposal will complicate refugees' journey towards citizenship and not improve the situation, despite the government's claims. Still, with almost no opposition in the Swedish government, it is unlikely that the trajectory of Swedish migration policy – where “permanent” residence can suddenly be anything but – will change.